Here are some markets, economic system and inventory predictions for 2024, together with what can be a most surprising final result for the U.S. economic system. First, a reminder: “The markets and the economy are not the same.”
1. AI continues to seize the world’s creativeness: The greatest firms begin utilizing synthetic intelligence for real-world enterprise functions, together with supply-chain administration, distribution enhancements and customer support interactions. Even some TV exhibits and big-budget motion pictures could possibly be made utilizing generative AI.
That mentioned, many smaller AI shares will get crushed and finish the yr down 90% or extra, after failing to ship on overhyped guarantees they’ve made about how they’ll use AI to generate development. This group contains C3.ai
AI,
Soundhound.ai
SOUN,
Upstart Holdings
UPST,
and Palantir Technologies
PLTR,
2. U.S. economic system stumbles: The U.S. economic system grows about 2% within the first half of 2024 however will get ugly by year-end, contracting 2% within the fourth quarter of 2024.
3. Tech on the transfer — actually: At least 5 tech firms, every valued at greater than $50 billion, announce their intentions to maneuver their headquarters to Texas from California (like Tesla has).
4. ChatGPT drama: Sam Altman will get fired from ChatGPT once more and this time it sticks. Microsoft has issue monetizing its ChatGPT partnership and its inventory finishes 2024 down 15% or extra.
5. The Fed received’t minimize charges: Inflation will spend a lot of the yr round 3%-4% inflicting a lot angst and ultimately concern within the broader markets. The similar consensus that was so bearish heading into 2023 is now wildly bullish heading into 2024. Obviously, 2023’s hovering megacap tech rally brings out the bulls.
6. Nasdaq is flat; large-caps lose: The Nasdaq 100
QQQ
) needs to be lackluster. The best-performing megacap tech inventory can be Tesla
TSLA,
which can be down 10% or extra within the first half however can be up 30-40% or extra within the second half. The second-best megacap tech inventory can be Amazon.com
AMZN,
up 20% for the yr, adopted by Alphabet
GOOGL,
up 15% or so.
Meanwhile, Apple inventory
AAPL,
can be lose 5% and the worst megacap tech inventory can be a toss-up between Microsoft
MSFT,
and Broadcom
AVGO,
every being down 15% or extra in 2024. Small-caps shine because the Russell 2000
IWM
) good points 10% for the yr whereas the S&P 500
SPX
slips 5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
) posts a ten% yearly loss.
7. Bitcoin pulls again: Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
pulls again 15-20% earlier than its “halving” occasion occurs in April, which permits bitcoin and different cryptocurrencies to rally into the occasion solely to drop 20-30% within the two or three months after the halving. Bitcoin stabilizes within the excessive $30,000s (bottoming round $36,000) this summer season and finishes 2024 at $42,733 or so. Ethereum ends the yr down greater than 20%. Recent highflying cryptos like Bonk and Near end 2024 down 50% or extra, whereas Dogecoin
DOGEUSD,
doubles (Call it the “Elon effect” — I’d have anticipated Elon Musk to surrender on Dogecoin by now, however he’s nonetheless bulling it).
Over on the SEC, Chair Gary Gensler leaves the regulatory company this summer season and the subsequent SEC enforcement chief is available in and truly does his/her job. The authorities steps up prosecution of the founders of hundreds of foolish, silly and/or fraudulent cryptocurrency tokens which were illegally pawned off on the general public up to now 5 years. Coinbase Global
COIN,
will get its comeuppance as the corporate settles with the SEC for $7.2 billion and Brian Armstrong has to surrender his job as CEO.
Read: SEC says its X account was compromised, and it has not accepted bitcoin ETFs
8. Oil isn’t effectively: Oil turns into one of the crucial unstable sectors out there in 2024, spending the yr buying and selling between $55 and $90 a barrel and ending the yr at $77.
9. Good as gold: Gold
GC00,
turns into one of many least unstable sectors out there in 2024, spending the yr buying and selling between $1800 and $2200 and ending the yr at $2047.
10. EV short-circuits: GM
GM,
Ford Motor
F,
and the opposite legacy automakers all however throw within the towel on their heretofore ballyhooed EV methods as patrons proceed to keep away from their crappy software program and horrible charging networks. GM writes down greater than $5 billion on its EV enterprise and the inventory ends the yr at lower than $20 a share.
Cody Willard is founding father of 10,000 Days Fund Capital Management and runs the ten,000 Days Fund, a hedge fund. At the time of publication, Willard and/or the ten,000 Days hedge fund have been internet lengthy META, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA and BITO, and internet quick AI, UPST, PLTR, MSFT, QQQ, AVGO, IWM, SPY, DIA, COIN and GM.
More: These Big Tech shares look to seize the largest AI market share in 2024
Also learn: Why stock-market bulls needs to be cautious what they want for on Fed price cuts
Source web site: www.marketwatch.com
