Political analyst Charlie Cook on Wednesday mentioned he doesn’t count on President Joe Biden to win re-election in November, providing his forecast at a National Association for Business Economics convention in Washington, D.C.
“I would be very, very surprised if President Biden won 270 electoral votes,” mentioned Cook, founder and contributor on the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, referring to the variety of such votes wanted to triumph within the White House race.
Cook mentioned it’s necessary to understand that the Electoral College determines who wins the presidential election, not the nationwide standard vote or nationwide polls.
“In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote, but he won the Electoral College basically by a margin of 78,000 votes scattered across three states,” Cook mentioned.
Cook mentioned a Democratic presidential candidate most likely must win the nationwide standard vote by 4 or 5 factors, or probably greater than that, earlier than it’s “likely to translate into an Electoral College win.”
In nationwide polls in the intervening time, Trump, the possible Republican nominee, has a lead of about 1 share level.
So Cook indicated he’s polling within the battleground states that seem more likely to determine the election. He pointed to a survey launched about two weeks in the past that confirmed Trump main Biden in seven swing states.
“The individual state Electoral College picture is a hell of a lot grimmer for Democrats than the national popular vote or the national polls are,” he advised NABE members.
Cook, a veteran analyst, has been criticized for some forecasts, together with saying the 2016 presidential election was “OVER” in October of that yr, when actually Trump ended up defeating Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Now learn: Betting markets put Biden’s probability of re-election at lowest stage in a yr
And see: The $7,500 federal EV tax credit score is on the poll in November
Source web site: www.marketwatch.com
