No ‘financial collapse’: Top Citi strategist says more healthy financial progress is coming

The international economic system doesn’t want a “collapse” with the intention to deliver inflation again to focus on and return to sustainable progress, in line with Steven Wieting, chief funding strategist and chief economist at Citi Global Wealth.

Major economies have confirmed surprisingly resilient to sharp rate of interest will increase from central banks over the past two years. This has been notably evident within the U.S., with a recession to date prevented and the labor market remaining strong.

Talk has now turned to charge cuts as inflation stays on a downward trajectory towards central banks’ targets, whereas progress has slowed.

Wieting advised CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that he’s optimistic the worldwide economic system doesn’t want an “economic collapse” to rein in inflation.

“We had one massive shock — one pandemic, one collapse. We didn’t need two recessions to ultimately cure our inflation problem,” he stated.

“It’s holding down parts of our economy now — manufacturing and trade declines are happening around the world — but these are likely to bottom within the year.”

U.S. headline inflation got here in at an annual 3.4% 12 months on 12 months in December, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal however down significantly from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

Investors can be carefully watching Friday’s private consumption expenditure inflation determine, the Fed’s most well-liked metric, for additional clues as to when the central financial institution will start chopping charges.

Meanwhile, a preliminary estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is scheduled for Thursday, with the economic system anticipated to have grown by 1.7%, its lowest charge because the 0.6% decline within the second quarter of 2022.

“This period of slower global growth and slowing employment growth in the United States we think can pass and lead to a healthier growth period if we take a look particularly at the next year and beyond, and that’s this year’s business for investors,” Wieting stated.

He highlighted that whereas there’s extra provide that must be labored out of the economic system, this was not the results of a “true overheating” or extended “boom,” however as an alternative of extra authorities fiscal stimulus associated to the pandemic restoration that wasn’t going to be repeated.

“If you take a look at money supply in the United States, it declined 4% over the past year. Take a look at the 1970s, it was almost 10% growth for the entire decade, import prices surging 14% every single year — that’s … sustained inflation,” Wieting stated.

“This story with just all of this government spending coming and going — upheaval in supply and demand, consumer spending going up or down 30% between goods and services, during the pandemic period — that’s not the environment we’re in any longer.”