Denmark’s Saxo Bank has a convention of constructing “outrageous predictions,” which each on occasion come true. The financial institution counts as a win its 2022 prediction that the plan to finish fossil fuels would get a rain examine, and its 2019 name that Germany was about to enter a recession.
Saxo is again with some new predictions, which as at all times are grounded a minimum of in some actuality. “Outrageous Predictions are a deliberate effort to push the boundaries of market participants’ imaginations and prepare them for any eventuality,” says the financial institution.
One that stood out is the view that folks will cease exercising because of the GLP-1 weight problems medication. (Right now, these are injections, although Novo Nordisk
NVO,
and Eli Lilly
LLY,
are each engaged on getting the merchandise into capsule type.)
“As supply of GLP-1 obesity drugs is expanded, prices come down and governments choose to designate the obesity drugs as vital for improving health and stopping the obesity epidemic. … However, in a turn of events, supply of GLP-1 obesity drugs is unable to meet the widespread demand, and patients need to wait for years to get their injections. Meanwhile, they stop exercising or keeping to a healthy diet now that a pill can keep weight in check, fueling a major health crisis,” says the financial institution.
Another prediction is that generative AI triggers a national-security disaster. “In a high-stakes game, a criminal group deploys the most deceptive generative AI deepfake the world has ever seen, phishing a high-ranking government official to hand over top-secret state information from a developed country. The daring move and success trigger the biggest national security crisis since WWII, ushering in a new era of far-reaching AI regulation,” they are saying. As a outcome, the U.S. and European Union require all content material made by generative AI to be labeled “Made by AI,” goes the prediction, seemingly not noticing the U.S. has to this point been unable to control social media, not to mention AI.
The winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election? How about Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? “His populist platform against the war-mongering Democrats and against the corporate elites resonates with both disgruntled traditional Democratic and Trump supporters. A new political era in the USA begins with the dramatic pivot away from plutocracy, as voters demand an end to drastic inequality and injustice and the end of forever wars,” states the Saxo prediction.
(Not solely are President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican former president, seen because the overwhelming co-favorites to win the election, however U.Ok. betting retailers assign higher presidential odds to Republican main hopeful Nikki Haley and Gavin Newsom, the Democratic California governor and never a 2024 contender, than to RFK Jr., who’s roughly degree with Michelle Obama relying on which betting agency is used.)
One prediction that basically doesn’t appear so outrageous is the concept that the Bank of Japan will surrender on its yield-curve management coverage. “This causes a rout in world bond markets, as Japanese traders transfer a refund residence. Yen strengthens as Japanese traders repatriate cash to home belongings, pushing USDJPY
USDJPY,
beneath 130, EURJPY
EURJPY,
beneath 140 and AUDJPY
AUDJPY,
beneath 88.”
The full Saxo Bank 2024 outrageous-prediction listing:
- With oil at $150, Saudis purchase Champions League franchise.
- World hit by main well being disaster as weight problems medication make individuals cease exercising.
- U.S. heralds the tip of capitalism with tax-free authorities bonds.
- Generative AI deepfake triggers a national-security disaster.
- Deficit international locations type “Rome Club” to barter commerce phrases.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who dropped a Democratic main bid to mount an unbiased White House bid — wins the U.S. presidential election.
- Japan’s “lucky 7%” GDP progress price forces Bank of Japan to desert yield-curve management.
- Luxury plunges as EU goes Robin Hood, introducing wealth tax.
Read on: The Supreme Court may intestine a U.S. wealth tax earlier than it even exists — and upend tax regulation
Source web site: www.marketwatch.com
