Investors have gotten used to unimaginable year-over-year comparisons through the previous a number of quarters for Nvidia Corp., which continues to steer the marketplace for graphics-processing items being deployed by knowledge facilities to help their company shoppers’ build-out of artificial-intelligence expertise.
Nvidia
NVDA,
is scheduled to announce outcomes for the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2024 subsequent Wednesday at 5 p.m. Eastern time. The consensus amongst analysts polled by FactSet is for the corporate to report quarterly gross sales of $20.28 billion, up from $6.05 billion a yr earlier.
A year-over-year comparability of the corporate’s gross sales outcomes doesn’t inform the total story. Nvidia’s gross sales elevated quickly throughout every of the previous three quarters as GPU gross sales for AI deployment — primarily a brand new market final yr — took off. The quarterly gross sales variety of $20.28 billion anticipated subsequent week could be a 12% sequential enhance from the $18.12 billion through the firm’s third quarter of its fiscal 2024, which ended Oct. 29.
Nvidia’s hovering gross sales and income have set the stage for its shares to greater than triple in worth over the previous yr. So an essential query for traders now’s how lengthy the corporate can keep a excessive tempo of progress for gross sales.
To assist reply that query, we screened consensus gross sales estimates amongst analysts polled by FactSet for the S&P 500
SPX.
We used FactSet’s adjusted calendar-year numbers for the estimates, with 2023 as a baseline. So the 2023 numbers are precise for firms whose fiscal years match the calendar and which have already reported their fourth-quarter outcomes. For different firms — about 20% of the S&P 500 — with fiscal years that don’t match the calendar, the 2023 numbers are estimates primarily based primarily on outcomes reported final yr.
Based on the consensus estimates via calendar 2025, these 20 firms within the S&P 500 are anticipated to indicate the best compound annual progress charges for gross sales. The gross sales estimates are in thousands and thousands.
| Company | Ticker | Two-year est. gross sales CAGR via 2025 | Est. 2023 gross sales | Est. 2024 gross sales | Est. 2025 gross sales | Price/ 2025 EPS estimate | Price/ 2025 sales-per-share estimate |
| Nvidia Corp. |
NVDA, |
38.9% | $56,430 | $90,505 | $108,861 | 29.9 | 16.8 |
| Micron Technology Inc. |
MU, |
35.8% | $17,927 | $25,871 | $33,053 | 12.1 | 2.7 |
| First Solar Inc. |
FSLR, |
27.2% | $3,482 | $4,563 | $5,632 | 7.6 | 3.0 |
| Newmont Corp. |
NEM, |
24.7% | $11,314 | $16,613 | $17,597 | 12.7 | 2.1 |
| Blackstone Inc. |
BX, |
24.7% | $9,791 | $12,552 | $15,228 | 20.9 | 10.1 |
| Diamondback Energy Inc. |
FANG, |
22.2% | $8,236 | $8,720 | $12,291 | 8.5 | 2.5 |
| Eli Lilly & Co. |
LLY, |
21.9% | $34,123 | $41,112 | $50,669 | 42.1 | 14.2 |
| Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. |
TTWO, |
21.6% | $5,298 | $6,690 | $7,835 | 19.0 | 3.4 |
| Broadcom Inc. |
AVGO, |
21.0% | $38,133 | $50,697 | $55,842 | 22.2 | 10.6 |
| ServiceNow Inc. |
NOW, |
21.0% | $8,971 | $10,896 | $13,137 | 49.5 | 12.4 |
| Axon Enterprise Inc. |
AXON, |
20.8% | $1,552 | $1,879 | $2,265 | 50.4 | 9.0 |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. |
AMD, |
19.9% | $22,680 | $25,965 | $32,615 | 32.7 | 8.9 |
| Insulet Corp. |
PODD, |
19.5% | $1,648 | $1,979 | $2,353 | 56.1 | 5.6 |
| DexCom Inc. |
DXCM, |
19.2% | $3,622 | $4,323 | $5,146 | 52.5 | 8.7 |
| Oneok Inc. |
OKE, |
18.8% | $19,034 | $24,991 | $26,864 | 12.8 | 1.5 |
| Palo Alto Networks Inc. |
PANW, |
18.4% | $7,428 | $8,827 | $10,408 | 52.4 | 11.2 |
| Tesla Inc. |
TSLA, |
18.0% | $96,775 | $111,142 | $134,764 | 44.6 | 4.5 |
| Targa Resources Corp. |
TRGP, |
17.8% | $15,610 | $19,202 | $21,670 | 12.5 | 0.9 |
| Extra Space Storage Inc. |
EXR, |
17.4% | $2,440 | $2,959 | $3,362 | 25.3 | 9.1 |
| Western Digital Corp. |
WDC, |
16.6% | $12,493 | $14,736 | $17,000 | 9.6 | 1.1 |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
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We have included price-to-earnings and price-to-sales figures, primarily based on Feb. 14 closing costs and consensus estimates for calendar 2025. In comparability, the S&P 500 trades for 18.2 instances the weighted mixture consensus estimate for 2025 and a couple of.5 instances the weighted gross sales estimate for that yr. The S&P 500’s anticipated two-year gross sales CAGR via 2025, primarily based on the weighted consensus estimates, is 5.3%.
So Nividia’s worth ratios primarily based on the 2025 estimates are excessive, however you pay a premium for speedy gross sales progress. And its price-to-sales ratio is excessive relative to the price-to-earnings ratio as a result of the corporate’s marginal revenue is so excessive for the GPUs.
Let’s finish with a abstract of analysts’ opinions of those shares. Keep in thoughts that the majority analysts working for brokerage companies set 12-month worth targets, which can be thought-about a comparatively quick interval for long-term progress traders.
| Company | Ticker | Share purchase rankings | Share impartial rankings | Share promote rankings | Feb. 14 worth | Consensus worth goal | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Nvidia Corp. |
NVDA, |
92% | 8% | 0% | $739.00 | $711.50 | -4% |
| Micron Technology Inc. |
MU, |
75% | 22% | 3% | $81.83 | $99.55 | 22% |
| First Solar Inc. |
FSLR, |
82% | 18% | 0% | $158.24 | $224.71 | 42% |
| Newmont Corp. |
NEM, |
61% | 35% | 4% | $32.12 | $47.50 | 48% |
| Blackstone Inc. |
BX, |
46% | 54% | 0% | $127.95 | $126.45 | -1% |
| Diamondback Energy Inc. |
FANG, |
83% | 17% | 0% | $169.86 | $187.96 | 11% |
| Eli Lilly & Co. |
LLY, |
74% | 19% | 7% | $757.31 | $755.75 | 0% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. |
TTWO, |
78% | 18% | 4% | $155.72 | $176.04 | 13% |
| Broadcom Inc. |
AVGO, |
71% | 29% | 0% | $1,262.22 | $1,234.98 | -2% |
| ServiceNow Inc. |
NOW, |
88% | 12% | 0% | $792.00 | $847.31 | 7% |
| Axon Enterprise Inc. |
AXON, |
85% | 15% | 0% | $270.84 | $264.38 | -2% |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. |
AMD, |
76% | 22% | 2% | $178.70 | $193.38 | 8% |
| Insulet Corp. |
PODD, |
83% | 17% | 0% | $188.79 | $235.57 | 25% |
| DexCom Inc. |
DXCM, |
88% | 12% | 0% | $116.75 | $147.49 | 26% |
| Oneok Inc. |
OKE, |
52% | 48% | 0% | $69.11 | $77.12 | 12% |
| Palo Alto Networks Inc. |
PANW, |
80% | 18% | 2% | $368.33 | $345.20 | -6% |
| Tesla Inc. |
TSLA, |
39% | 45% | 16% | $188.71 | $214.76 | 14% |
| Targa Resources Corp. |
TRGP, |
96% | 0% | 4% | $88.34 | $107.70 | 22% |
| Extra Space Storage Inc. |
EXR, |
42% | 53% | 5% | $139.60 | $159.25 | 14% |
| Western Digital Corp. |
WDC, |
67% | 29% | 4% | $56.08 | $68.17 | 22% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
An overwhelming proportion of analysts price Nvidia a purchase or the equal, however the inventory has gotten forward of the consensus 12-month worth goal. Maybe even the analysts imagine that setting one-year worth targets isn’t very useful for long-term traders.
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