Peloton earnings: What to anticipate from the maker of train bikes

Here’s what to observe for within the upcoming report:

What to anticipate

Earnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet anticipate Peloton to report a 40-cent loss per share, whereas the corporate misplaced $3.68 a share within the year-prior interval.

Revenue: The FactSet consensus is for $641 million in income, down from $679 million a yr earlier.

Stock motion: Peloton shares are inclined to take massive swings after earnings, logging double-digit-percentage strikes within the session following 5 of the corporate’s previous seven reviews.

The inventory is down 95% from its pandemic-era all-time closing excessive of $167.42 achieved in January 2021, and it’s off about 12% to this point this yr.

Of the 26 analysts tracked by FactSet who cowl Peloton’s inventory, 10 have purchase scores, 13 have maintain scores and three have promote scores, with a median value goal of $11.36.

What else to observe for

“The key metrics we look at are subscriber growth, retention and engagement,” Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman mentioned in a latest be aware to purchasers.

She expects the corporate to ship 101,000 gross subscriber additions, which might mark a sequential decline. Peloton traditionally sees subscriber additions fall sequentially in the course of the summer season as the corporate pulls again on advertising and marketing attributable to better curiosity in out of doors train, although she additionally sees the “softer consumer macro” taking part in a job.

She’ll even be searching for updates on consumer traction within the wake of Peloton’s latest app relaunch.

“[W]e really like this digital app relaunch as it leans into the most attractive, differentiated, and sticky subs portion of the business and away from the low-margin and less differentiated hardware side,” Sherman wrote.

Third-party information from SensorTower suggests an 11% year-over-year drop in month-to-month energetic customers for Peloton in the course of the June quarter, which might mark the sixth quarter in a row of year-over-year declines.

UBS analyst Arpine Kocharyan added that whereas she noticed a “positive trend” in whole interactive visits to Peloton’s web site throughout May and June, that momentum “didn’t hold up in July.”

“We believe consistent momentum in positive growth in total interactive visits could mean traction in demand, but we are also mindful of significant promotional activity in seasonally slower months and ahead of new app launch that could have temporarily push these metrics higher,” she wrote.

Cowen & Co.’s John Blackledge may have his eye on Peloton’s progress towards breakeven free money circulate and on margins.