Big Picture: History no information with the semis in sight
There was a time when going through Afghanistan in a World Cup held no fears for Australia. The five-time World Champions have been nothing wanting ruthless within the two earlier ODI World Cup conferences. In 2015, in Perth, Australia piled up 417 for six with David Warner cracking 178, on their technique to a 275-run win. In 2019, in Bristol, Australia romped residence to a seven-wicket win with 91 balls to spare having bowled Afghanistan out for 207 earlier than Warner once more made 89 not out.
But there is no such thing as a likelihood the 2023 Australians are heading to the Wankhede Stadium assuming they are going to win once more at a canter. Afghanistan poses an infinite risk, regardless of Australia’s five-game profitable streak. Afghanistan have gained three in a row themselves and have already taken down England, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Netherlands as they push for a maiden semi-final berth. And they possess the talent to reveal Australia’s main weak point, with the spin quartet of Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Mohammad Nabi, Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad able to inflicting Australia’s batting line-up no finish of issues, whereas their batting all through the event has been wonderful. An identical assault nearly upset Australia on residence soil on the 2022 T20 World Cup, though it was the tempo duo of Naveen-ul-Haq and Fazalhaq Farooqi who did all of the injury on that event.
One factor in Australia’s favour is that Mumbai is a far cry from the spin-friendly circumstances in Chennai and Delhi the place Afghanistan’s spun out Pakistan and England respectively. Wankhede has been the highest-scoring floor in first innings within the event up to now and that performs to Australia’s energy. Spin has additionally had subsequent to no affect in Mumbai within the final 10 ODIs on the venue. And whereas going through spin has been Australia’s weak level in ODI cricket in latest occasions, Australia’s batting unit do have excellent particular person match-up data in opposition to Afghanistan’s spinners in T20 cricket.
But whereas historical past and circumstances are on Australia’s aspect as they give the impression of being to lock of their spot within the final 4 there’s one different factor to contemplate. This recreation, just like the one in final 12 months’s T20 World Cup has a barely totally different undertone for Afghanistan than it does their opponents. Cricket Australia’s determination to cancel a Test between the 2 nations in November 2021 and a three-match ODI collection in March 2023 for political causes stays entrance of thoughts for a few of the Afghanistan gamers. Afghanistan has been fueled by a need to show a degree on this World Cup, a degree about their standing in international cricket, and a few added motivation definitely will not hinder them.
Afghanistan – WWWLW (final 5 accomplished matches, most up-to-date first)
In the highlight: Rashid Khan and Mitchell Marsh
So lengthy the talisman of Afghanistan’s assault Rashid Khan has been under his greatest on this World Cup up to now. He has simply seven wickets at 43.85. Only Mujeeb has a worse common of all of Afghanistan’s bowlers whereas Rashid’s strike fee of 57 is the worst of the group. He has been constructing strain although, as he at all times does, conceding simply 4.61 per over with the likes of Nabi and Noor benefitting on the different finish at occasions. But he solely has one three-wicket haul, and that was in opposition to England. Against Australia, whose batters know him intimately as each team-mates and opponents within the BBL, he doesn’t loom as a significant risk. They have seen all his tips so many occasions they’re unlikely to be crushed by what they know. His fallacious ‘un has not been the weapon it as soon as was throughout this World Cup and his legbreak doesn’t appear to strike any concern. But England’s Adil Rashid was a well known foe in Australia’s final recreation and he nonetheless had a huge effect taking 2 for 38 from 10 together with the wickets of Steven Smith and Josh Inglis, with Smith falling to spin for the fifth time within the event. Rashid might want to have an effect for Afghanistan, particularly as Australia’s bevy of middle-order right-handers match up effectively to Mujeeb and Nabi.
Mitchell Marsh‘s innings in opposition to New Zealand and his absence in opposition to England did reveal a quirk of Australia’s batting steadiness. He seemed misplaced beginning in opposition to spin within the twentieth over. It was his newest entry level in an ODI this 12 months having opened in 11 of his 15 matches and batted three within the different 4. The solely different time he entered after the tenth over was in Bloemfontein in September, additionally after a century stand from Warner and Travis Head, and he was out first ball to spin. But in opposition to England, the early losses of Head and Warner left Australia with out one other power-hitter within the powerplay, one thing they wish to make the most of. But Marsh’s general file at No. 3 within the final three years has been very poor. He’s averaging simply 17.60 there
in 10 innings and hanging at 73.06 with a highest rating of 36 in comparison with his
extraordinary file opening. Australia look extra highly effective on paper with him within the line-up, however they want him to get comfy at No. 3 heading in direction of the sharp finish of the event.
Team news: Naveen or Noor, Smith or Labuschagne?
Afghanistan have been fairly settled and have primarily made adjustments to the assault relying on circumstances. The problem in opposition to Australia is the circumstances in Mumbai counsel Naveen ought to play forward of Noor Ahmad, and Naveen took 3 for 21 in opposition to Australia within the T20 World Cup final 12 months. But Australia’s kryptonite has been spin and enjoying 4 of them needs to be tempting.
Afghanistan (possible): 1 Rahmanullah Gurbaz, 2 Ibrahim Zadran, 3 Rahmat Shah, 4 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 5 Azmatullah Omarzai, 6 Ikram Alikhil (wk), 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Rashid Khan, 9 Mujeeb Ur Rahman, 10 Naveen-ul-Haq/Noor Ahmad, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi
Marsh and Maxwell are anticipated to return. Marsh bowled and batted and measured his run up too on match eve, and Maxwell batted for a very long time in opposition to some native spinners. Cameron Green has already conceded he’ll miss out for certainly one of them. The huge query is who’s the opposite participant to make method. Logic would counsel it is Marnus Labuschagne however he was Australia’s top-scorer in opposition to England with 71 and has been certainly one of Australia’s greatest gamers of offspin, legspin and left-arm wrist spin within the event whereas Steven Smith has had his troubles in opposition to offspin and legspin within the event, and has additionally been affected by vertigo. The different consideration is Marcus Stoinis’ health given he has typically been rested on quick turnarounds between video games on account of his damage historical past. The similar may very well be mentioned for the three quicks given they’ve solely had three days to get well.
Australia (possible): 1 David Warner, 2 Travis Head, 3 Mitchell Marsh, 4 Steven Smith/Marnus Labuschagne, 5 Josh Inglis (wk), 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Marcus Stoinis, 8 Pat Cummins (capt), 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Josh Hazlewood
The Wankhede has been a batting paradise within the World Cup up to now with first innings scores of 399, 382 and 357 posted already within the event.
Mumbai is about to be highly regarded with temperatures touching 37 levels, and the air high quality may also be a priority.
The Wankhede has the best common of sixes per match within the event up to now. In three matches there was a median of 18.3 sixes struck per recreation. Arun Jaitley Stadium in Delhi is the subsequent highest with 17.5.
David Warner is 45 runs away from 18000 throughout all types of worldwide cricket as an opener. Sanath Jayasuriya and Chris Gayle are the one others must scored 18000 runs as openers in worldwide cricket.
Source web site: www.espncricinfo.com
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