Pakistan face near-impossible process in opposition to England to make World Cup semi-finals
Big image: Pakistan chasing the just about not possible
So right here we’re: one final time within the group levels at Eden Gardens, and for each of those sides – virtually actually – one final time at this World Cup. As title defences go, it was an all-timer of a catastrophe for England, comparable not simply with different cricketing fizzle-fests, however maybe all sport: suppose France on the FIFA World Cup in 2002, or Lleyton Hewitt’s first-round exit at Wimbledon the yr later. England went practically a month between their solely two World Cup wins, with six defeats – lots of them pastings – littering their marketing campaign, one so poor it might but knock them out of the 2025 Champions Trophy.
England’s model of cricket has been high-risk-high-reward for about eight years now, and having loved a lot white-ball success with it, the dangers lastly appeared to catch up this time. That fashion feels prefer it requires final buy-in from gamers, and that requires confidence, which solely comes from outcomes.
Once the outcomes started to show awry – first a beatdown in opposition to New Zealand after which an upset in opposition to Afghanistan – issues snowballed in a short time. Panic in opposition to South Africa, once they made three adjustments and unwisely selected to subject first, was punished to the fullest. They would spend the following fortnight touring the nation getting crushed by one aspect after one other, earlier than a comparatively respectable exhibiting in opposition to Netherlands secured them their second win. Team choice baffled, shot choice generally much more so.
Against Pakistan, although, they’ve the prospect to log off a wretched event on one thing resembling a excessive. Several of this England squad might not put on an ODI shirt once more – actually not in a World Cup – and it is maybe becoming that the final aspect they play in opposition to earlier than their doubtless break-up is Pakistan. This model of England has sizzled extra in opposition to Pakistan than some other aspect, successful 14 of their 18 accomplished ODIs because the 2015 World Cup, together with a then-World report whole of 444 at Trent Bridge. Here’s an opportunity to play the previous hits one final time.
In Pakistan cricket, hope is the very last thing you lose, and so regardless of the near-insurmountable odds in opposition to semi-final qualification, they carry on dreaming. Qualification requires beating England by about 290 runs, and whereas England have had a foul event, it is not a really perfect place to be for Babar Azam’s males. It has been a marketing campaign that has mirrored their 2019 event with irritating faithfulness, dropping simply sufficient video games to go away them adrift of New Zealand on internet run price (NRR). In the ultimate recreation that yr, they required a equally inconceivable win over Bangladesh. It did not occur then, and it is unlikely to occur now.
Pakistan will probably be aggravated that a number of of their gamers misplaced their type at the very same time resulting in their worst mid-World Cup run in historical past, once they misplaced 4 consecutive matches to go away them dealing with the exit. As with 2019, they misplaced one winnable recreation too many – West Indies in 2019, and Afghanistan in 2023 – and by no means fairly had the readability of goal to maintain their eyes on an NRR which remained unfavorable for one of the best a part of the event. To get previous New Zealand now requires a miracle, and a sustained dedication to progressive cricket that Babar has frankly been unable to encourage his aspect to in all his years on the helm of Pakistan cricket.
At greatest, he can emulate what Pakistan managed 4 years in the past, and end off as one of the best of the remaining. On the proof of the cricket they’ve performed, it will not precisely be an unfair evaluation.
As puzzling because it was premature, Jos Buttler’s sudden absence of type and confidence at this World Cup has been considered one of a number of low factors from an England perspective. For a person who performed such a pivotal half in clinching the trophy 4 years in the past, his ascent to the captaincy ought to have been the zenith of his ODI profession. This event, as an alternative, has been its nadir. A 43 in opposition to New Zealand to open the event was nearly as good because it received for England’s most damaging batter, failing to handle even half of that in any of his subsequent seven innings. However, Pakistan are his favorite ODI opposition, his common and strike price ballooning to 65.25 and 150.86, respectively, in opposition to them, in comparison with profession numbers of 39.79 and 117.16. The World Cup might have lengthy gone, however he nonetheless has the prospect to safe for his aspect a visit to Pakistan in a few years’ time, with a win assuring England of a spot within the subsequent Champions Trophy.
Even as he discovered his contact to such devastating impact in opposition to New Zealand, Fakhar Zaman will probably be keenly conscious of the poor timing of his drop in type. Just six months in the past, he scored three successive a whole lot and regarded like probably the most harmful opener any aspect would have at this World Cup. It was the kind of type he had maintained all through this cycle, solely to inexplicably elude him when it mattered most. Fakhar regarded a shadow of his former self at the beginning of the event, and was dropped one recreation in. For a person made for the massive event, he averaged 22 in World Cup matches till that time. He would lastly treatment that with 81 and 126* within the two video games since his return, however it’s destined to be just a bit too late. At 33, this may simply be Fakhar’s final World Cup recreation, which could free him up simply that little bit extra. And an unshackled Fakhar will all the time be one to look at.
Team news: No adjustments doubtless
England turned in one thing resembling an entire efficiency in opposition to Netherlands, regardless of a middle-order wobble that threatened to destabilise. Wholesale adjustments to that group are unlikely.
England: 1 Jonny Bairstow, 2 Dawid Malan, 3 Joe Root, 4 Ben Stokes, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Jos Buttler (capt/wk), 7 Moeen Ali, 8 Chris Woakes, 9 David Willey, 10 Gus Atkinson, 11 Adil Rashid
Pakistan’s bowling took a battering in opposition to New Zealand, however they’re anticipated to subject an unchanged aspect to the one which pulled off that near-miraculous DLS win chasing 402.
Pakistan: 1 Abdullah Shafique, 2 Fakhar Zaman, 3 Babar Azam (capt), 4 Mohammad Rizwan (wk), 5 Saud Shakeel, 6 Iftikhar Ahmed, 7 Agha Salman, 8 Hasan Ali, 9 Mohammad Wasim Jnr, 10 Shaheen Shah Afridi, 11 Haris Rauf
Pitch and situations: Bowlers beware
There’s some grass on what seems to be like a dry pitch. It’s additionally off-centre, which is able to end in a brief boundary one aspect. It’s anticipated to be scorching and fairly humid, with rain not within the offing.
Stats and trivia
Buttler wants 66 extra to change into simply the fifth England cricketer to 5000 ODI runs. Of the 4 who’ve come earlier than, solely Joe Root boasts the next common.
While England gained the edges’ first three World Cup conferences, the tables have turned since. Pakistan have misplaced a World Cup match to England simply as soon as since 1983, successful 5 of their final six.
Quotes
“Look, there should be hope at all times. At any stage, in any work you do, you should have positive and hope, and I firmly believe in that.” Pakistan captain Babar Azam hasn’t given up on the semi-finals
Danyal Rasool is ESPNcricinfo’s Pakistan correspondent. @Danny61000
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